Toluca scores 50 out of 100 (moderate safety) on World Safety Map, ranked 5160 of 6168 cities worldwide. The score combines the homicide rate, nearby conflict deaths, income equality and human development from published data (UNODC, UCDP, World Bank, UNDP).

Is Toluca safe?

Mexico · North America · data updated 2026-09-04

50.5Moderate · rank 5160 / 6,168
safer than 16% of ranked cities

Toluca is a city in Mexico, home to about 1.5M people, and one of 6,168 cities worldwide ranked on this site from published safety data. It currently ranks 5,160 of 6,168, with a safety score of 50.5 out of 100 - mid-table: neither the data for concern nor the data for reassurance dominates.

US 2/4 Exercise increased caution UK FCDO advises against all but essential travel to parts of this country

Emergency 911 (ambulance, fire, police)

UK FCDO advises against all but essential travel to parts of this country25 named areas - see "areas to avoid" below.

Deadliest recorded locations nearby

Tenango del Valle15 deaths · 1 event
Toluca10 deaths · 2 events
the parking area next to the Francisco J. Múgica bypass in Zitácuaro6 deaths · 1 event

UCDP-recorded organized-violence deaths within 100 km of Toluca, 2022-2024, at the locations the source itself names. Conflict deaths, not street crime.

Areas the UK FCDO advises against visiting country

State of Baja California
State of Chihuahua
State of Sinaloa
State of Tamaulipas
State of Zacatecas
State of Guanajuato
State of Michoacán
State of Jalisco
State of Colima
State of Guerrero
State of Chiapas
city of Morelia accessed by federal toll roads 15D, 126 and 43; and the federal toll road 48D between the city of Morelia and the General Francisco Mujica airport
town of Pátzcuaro accessed by federal toll roads 14D and 15 from Morelia, and boat trips out to islands on Lake Pátzcuaro
Federal Highway 15D
Bolaños
Chimaltitán
Colotlán
Hostotipaquillo
Huejúcar
Huequilla el Alto
Mezquitic
San Martin de Bolaños
Santa Maria de los Ángeles
Totatiche
Villa Guerrero

Named in the official UK travel advice for Mexico (in full or in part - the advisory lists exact boundaries and exceptions). These are country-level warnings and may be far from Toluca.

How safe is Toluca really?

The most direct evidence is measured in the city itself: Toluca recorded 4.7 homicides per 100,000 residents in 2024 - close to the global city median. Mexico's income inequality is middling (Gini 42.6) - in this dataset inequality predicts city violence better than any other structural factor, so this neither raises nor lowers the picture much.

Toluca also carries some conflict exposure: UCDP recorded 108 deaths from organized violence within 100 km across 61 events in 2022-2024 - a factor crime statistics alone would miss. The deadliest recorded locations in that radius were Tenango del Valle (15 deaths), Toluca (10 deaths), the parking area next to the Francisco J. Múgica bypass in Zitácuaro (6 deaths).

What the travel advisories say

The US State Department currently rates Mexico at level 2 of 4 - "Exercise increased caution" (updated 2025-08-11). The UK Foreign Office advises against all but essential travel to parts of this country, naming 25 specific areas - listed above with the official advisory linked for exact boundaries and exceptions. Both advisories are country-level: no official source publishes verified neighborhood-level crime guidance for individual cities, which is why this page reports named areas only where an official source names them.

What to watch out for in Mexico

Terrorism in Mexico · Political situation · Using ATMs · Protecting your belongings · Scams · Drink and food spiking · Tainted alcohol · Methanol poisoning · Sexual assault · Kidnapping · Violence · Vehicle crime · Roadblocks · Unlicensed taxis · +18 more

Topic headings from the official UK FCDO travel advice for Mexico — country-level, not specific to Toluca. Read what each one says →

The numbers

Homicide rate: 4.7 /100kcity-measured, 2024
Conflict deaths: 108within 100 km, 2022-2024 (UCDP)
Income inequality: Gini 42.6country, 2024
Human development: HDI 0.789country, 2023
Income: $25,070/yrGNI per capita PPP · context only, not scored
Population: 1.5Murban centre · 3,940/km²

Country context for travelers

Road deaths: 12.8 /100kWHO, 2019 · often the biggest real travel risk
Political stability: 54/100World Bank WGI, 2024 · higher = more stable
Rule of law: 37/100World Bank WGI, 2024 · police and courts reliability
Corruption perceptions: 27/100Transparency International, 2025 · higher = cleaner
Natural-hazard risk: 4.9/10EU INFORM, 2026 · higher = riskier
Women, Peace & Security: 0.56Georgetown WPS Index, 2025 · 0-1, higher = better
Air quality: 16.6 µg/m³PM2.5 annual mean, 2023 · WHO guideline is 5
Safely managed drinking water: 43%of the population, 2024 · WHO/UNICEF JMP
Healthcare capacity: 2.6 doctors /1k1.0 hospital beds per 1,000
Malaria: 0 /1k at riskWHO, 2024 · listed for endemic countries only

Natural hazards in Mexico

Earthquake: 8.2/10EU INFORM, 2026 · higher = riskier
Flood: 7.9/10EU INFORM, 2026 · higher = riskier
Cyclone: 7.1/10EU INFORM, 2026 · higher = riskier
Tsunami: 5.5/10EU INFORM, 2026 · higher = riskier
Drought: 3.0/10EU INFORM, 2026 · higher = riskier

Hazard types scoring under 1 out of 10 are not listed. These describe Mexico as a whole, not Toluca specifically.

Same-sex sexual activity is legal in Mexico (as of 2025).

All country-level figures shared by every city in Mexico; none of them affect the safety score.

How the score works

Low homicide40%45

Peace25%49

Equality25%50

Development10%79

One fixed, calibrated mix for every city: 40% homicide · 25% peace · 25% equality · 10% HDI. Homicide and conflict deaths are measured outcomes; income inequality carries the structural share because it predicts real city violence far better than national income (which is shown above but scored at zero). Each factor maps to 0-100 against fixed anchors, missing data drops out and is never estimated, and cities with data behind less than half the weighting get “no data” instead of a score. For Toluca that gives 50.5/100. Full methodology, anchors and sources →

Toluca compared with Mexico City

The nearest ranked city of comparable size. Green favours Toluca, red favours Mexico City.
Measure	Toluca	Mexico City	Difference
Safety score	50.5	45.7	+4.7 — better for Toluca
Homicide ratecity-measured where published, otherwise the national rate	4.7 /100k	9.6 /100k	−4.9 /100k — better for Toluca
Conflict deaths within 100 km	108	97	+11 — better for Mexico City

Differences are plain arithmetic between the two stored figures — nothing is modelled. Both cities are in Mexico, so they share every country-level figure and only the city-level ones are listed. Full report for Mexico City →

Nearby cities

See Toluca on the interactive map → · Safest cities in North America → · Full travel briefings →